THE People’s Republic of China is reportedly considering ten possible courses of action that it would implement, selectively, or in their totality, in response to its deteriorating relationship with the Philippines under the principle of reciprocal retaliation.
According to the report that appeared this October 21 at the ‘Chinese Commercial News,’ China “is reportedly growing increasingly impatient with the Philippines’ recent actions and remarks concerning China and is considering ten possible countermeasures.”
“These measures would cover a range of areas, including diplomatic sanctions, the South China Sea dispute, trade and supply chains, labor policies, tourism, and consular arrangements,” the article prefaced.
Chinese Commercial News is one of the oldest Chinese newspapers in the Philippines with known close ties to official Chinese circles here and in the mainland.
The article noted however that the measures have not been officially confirmed by responsible Chinese officials or if they are now tabled for consideration under China’s “formal decision-making process.”
Its release thru the media, however, is the clearest message thus far that China has reached the limit of its patience and is ready for confrontation in any shape or form that this may come about, including military confrontation to settle the territorial disputes in the South China Sea.
Why the relationship is deteriorating fast
The relationship between Manila and Beijing has gone from stable under the Duterte administration, to bad and then to worse, after President Marcos Junior dropped Duterte’s independent foreign policy in early 2023 and hocked the country’s foreign policy direction to the United States.
Aside from adding five more US military bases that China said are all aimed against it, the President also allowed other government officials and lawmakers to start badmouthing China in public since then, thus weakening the voice and influence of the Department of Foreign Affairs on foreign policy matters.
Its release thru the media, however, is the clearest message thus far that China has reached the limit of its patience and is ready for confrontation in any shape or form that this may come about, including military confrontation to settle the territorial disputes in the South China Sea.
In the current tense situation, the President also refused to take a position, saying he would leave the decision to expel Chinese Ambassador Jing Quan to the DFA amidst call by his allies in both chambers of Congress for his expulsion.
The move to expel China’s envoy would be the second time since his arrival in Manila as envoy last December. Last January, the municipality of Kalayaan, officially part of Palawan province, got the backing of several lawmakers in declaring Ambassador Jing Quan as ‘persona-non-grata’ for alleged “interference” in the country’s internal affairs.
At the time, the Chinese Embassy vehemently protested the actions of Philippine Coastguard Commodore and spokesperson for the West Philippine Sea, Jay Tarriela that the embassy claimed is an attack on the prestige and credibility of China and its officials, including President Xi Jinping (Pinoy Exposé, January 28, 2026).
In response, China announced it is banning all Kalayaan municipal officials from entering the territory of China, including Macau and Hongkong.
Is China’s patience running out?
At the meeting of foreign ministers meeting in Manila last July involving ASEAN members and their partners that include China, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi already informed Foreign Affairs Secretary Ma. Teresa Lazaro that the relationship of the two countries is already at a “crossroad.”
In a statement to the public thru the Embassy’s social media page, Ambassador Jing Quan said he made five “strong demarches” to Foreign Secretary Lazaro during their meeting last October 19 “over the recent remarks of Philippine officials and politicians which take things out of context and constitute smear and slander against the Chinese side.”
Ambassador Jing Quan denied making a “thinly veiled threat” during his engagement at a forum at the University of the Philippines where he is one of the key panelists.
“My key point is…adopt a differentiated approach to handle the problems of various sectors, based on their own merits instead of linking one to another.
“We should enhance dialogue, manage differences and deepen cooperation, create more good stories, good news. Let the good aspects prevail over bad ones.
“Otherwise, we may easily fall into the situation of countermeasures and retaliation.”
He continued: “Peace is hard-won in this region. We should cherish the peace. This is not called “threat”, but the effort to uphold peace.”
On its maritime dispute with the Philippines, he cautioned that China’s “restraint” should not be mistaken for “weakness and further challenge our patience regardless of boundary and bottom line.”
He also warned the two countries’ bilateral relations have reached “a very sensitive and complicated juncture.”
In this context, the article at Chinese Commercial News made it clear that China is prepared for whatever “bottom line” its relationship with the Philippines might take, including settling the South China Sea disputes thru armed conflict.
10 possible courses of action
As the article discussed, China is considering the following courses of action: 1. Sanction ‘Anti-China’ politicians. Like the sanction imposed on Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro last June, this can include banning them and their immediate families from entering mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macao; freezing their assets in China; and prohibiting Chinese companies and individuals from conducting transactions with those sanctioned.
Teodoro’s list of actions allegedly targeting China, its citizens and businesses is also the subject of a long narrative in the Chinese Commercial News article.
- Disclose certain politicians’ business and financial ties with China. Publicly disclose the trade dealings of certain Philippine politicians with China, their personal interests and connections involving Chinese institutions, and information about their assets in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macao.
This would have the effect of exposing their possible discreet business dealings in China that they did not declare in their statement of assets, liabilities and net worth (SALN), which constitute graft and corruption or in their statements on campaign contributions during the elections, which is a violation of the Omnibus Election Code.
- Tow away the grounded Philippine warship (BRP Sierra Madre) at Ren’ai Jiao (Second Thomas Shoal) locally known as ‘Ayungin Shoal’ and permanently stopped the resupply mission to the Philippines Marines stationed there through “strong measures.”
While the proposal stated this action would “put an end once and for all to an issue that has reportedly persisted for 27 years,” it would also forced the United States to declare its “ironclad” commitment to defend the Philippines under the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) as the Philippines cannot stop the plan’s implementation without the support of the United States military.
In this connection, China appears ready to militarily challenge the United States and its allies over the decrepit warship that would put the entire region under great peril with the Philippines being blamed by its neighbors as the instigator.
- Restrict Chinese citizens’ travel to the Philippines. Citing the prevalence of online gambling, telecommunications fraud, kidnapping, and other criminal activities in the Philippines, as well as security concerns and political risks, temporarily designate the Philippines as a destination Chinese citizens are advised not to visit, substantially reducing the number of Chinese tourists traveling to the country.
- Tighten labor policies for Filipino workers in Hong Kong and Macao. Strengthen the management of Filipino workers employed in Hong Kong and Macao, including detaining individuals who violate visa regulations and suspending dialogue with the Philippine side on labor-related issues in Hong Kong.
- Step up enforcement against Filipinos working illegally in mainland China. Detain more Filipino nationals working illegally in mainland China and intensify efforts to crack down on violations of Chinese laws and employment regulations.
- Cut off supplies of refined petroleum products and fertilizers. Suspend trade in and supplies of refined petroleum products and fertilizers to the Philippines, thereby exerting economic and trade pressure on the Philippine side.
The plan, if implemented, would further deepen the suffering of Filipinos whose energy supply is wholly import-dependent and would potentially tank the country’s agriculture growth.
While the Philippines imports more than 90 percent of its crude oil requirements from the Middle East (now engulfed in war), China supplies some 25 percent of its refined oil products that include diesel, gasoline, jet fuel. It is also the country’s leading source of LPG (liquified petroleum gas) used in most households.
- Restrict exports of essential and urgently needed goods to the Philippines. Impose export restrictions on specific goods urgently needed by the Philippines in order to increase economic and supply chain pressures on the country. These can include machineries and spare parts and other electronic products that support the country’s export sector.
- Require the Philippines to close some of its consulates general in China. Should the Philippines approve the establishment of an office by the Taiwan authorities in Cebu, China might invoke the imbalance in the number of consulates general maintained by the two countries in each other’s territory as grounds to demand that the Philippines close some of its consulates general in China, including the Philippine Consulate General in Hong Kong. This would have the potential of immediately closing down the source of help and assistance to nearly 300,000 Filipinos working in Hongkong and Macao.