(Editor’s Note: The following is a reprint of the article by highly respectable Filipino scholar and analyst, Prof. Anna Malindog-Uy that she posted in her social media account last March 6. We are reprinting it, with very minor corrections, with the author’s permission due to its relevance. The article also shatters the propaganda being peddled by some quarters in government for the public not to be worried as we are too far away from the Middle East to be affected by the ongoing war there).
THE news flashing across global media should alarm policymakers in Manila. First, China has ordered its largest refiners to suspend diesel and gasoline exports amid disruptions in crude supply from the Persian Gulf.
At the same time, major shipping giants from Maersk to COSCO are pulling vessels out of the Gulf as tensions escalate. Shipping traffic through the Red Sea and surrounding corridors is already being rerouted, while reports indicate that the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, is CLOSED.
Each of these developments may appear geographically distant from the Philippines. But in reality they strike directly at the structural vulnerability of the Philippine economy.
The Philippines’ Energy Lifeline Is External.
The Philippines imports nearly all of its oil, refined fuel, and LNG. These supplies do not magically appear in Batangas or Subic. They travel through a fragile chain of global maritime arteries:
- Strait of Hormuz – where Middle Eastern crude exits the Gulf
- Indian Ocean and Red Sea shipping corridors
- Strait of Malacca – the world’s busiest maritime bottleneck
- South China Sea – the final corridor towards Philippine ports
Disrupt any of these arteries and the impact travels downstream immediately. The Philippines, sitting at the end of this chain, has no control over any of them.
The First Rule of War Economics: Countries Protect Themselves First.
History is very clear about what happens during global crises like wars. When supply tightens:
- Exporting countries restrict exports
- Refiners prioritize domestic markets
- Shipping companies avoid war zones
- Prices surge globally
We are already seeing the early signs of this behavior. China’s decision to suspend diesel and gasoline exports is not ideological; it is a strategic act of self-preservation. In times of uncertainty, states prioritize their own energy security.
No country will sacrifice its domestic stability to supply foreign markets. This includes countries the Philippines depends on for fuel and other imported goods (food).
A Dangerous Layer of Strategic Irony.
This vulnerability becomes even more complex when viewed through the lens of geopolitics. The Philippines today maintains very challenging and tense relations with China, yet China remains a major supplier of refined petroleum products to the Philippine market.
Note that the Philippines imports diesel from China, accounting for around 30 percent of its imports, and around 40 percent from South Korea, which our government hopes will not follow suit on China’s decision to stop exporting diesel and other refined energy products.
In other words:
China, a country that Manila increasingly frames as a strategic adversary, is simultaneously one of the suppliers keeping Philippine fuel markets functioning. That contradiction becomes dangerously exposed during geopolitical crises.
If tensions escalate or supply tightens, energy flows are not governed by diplomatic rhetoric; they are governed by national interest.
Geography Does Not Protect the Philippines
Some may argue that the Gulf War is far away from Southeast Asia. But geography offers no protection in globalized energy markets.
If tankers cannot leave the Gulf. If shipping companies avoid conflict zones. If exporters restrict supply. Then fuel prices in Manila, Cebu, and Davao will feel the shock almost immediately. Energy markets operate as a global bloodstream. A clot in one artery eventually starves the entire system.
The Real Risk: Strategic Overexposure
For the Philippines, the danger is not simply higher oil prices. The deeper problem is structural overexposure:
- Heavy reliance on imported fuel
- Dependence on fragile maritime chokepoints
- Limited domestic refining capacity
- A geopolitical position as a frontline state in great-power competition
These vulnerabilities compound each other. When geopolitical tensions intersect with energy supply disruptions, economic shock becomes inevitable.
A Question for Marcos Jr, Policymakers, and Government Officials Must Confront.
The events unfolding in the Gulf raise a simple but uncomfortable question for Manila:
What happens if the energy arteries feeding the Philippine economy are disrupted for weeks or months? Because the answer is not theoretical.
– Inflation spikes.
– Transport costs surge.
– Electricity prices climb.
– Economic growth slows.
– And the most vulnerable sectors of society suffer first.
The Illusion of Distance.
Wars may begin thousands of kilometers away. But for countries heavily dependent on global supply chains—like the Philippines—DISTANCE IS AN ILLUSION!
When the world’s energy arteries tighten, the shockwaves travel faster than missiles.