THE Philippines highlighting its “victory” on the 10th year of the arbitration case it brought against China has shown the depth of its present isolation in the global arena with only 14 countries joining in the celebration, out of the 193-member states of the United Nations, an indictment of its grievous and embarrassing mistake in its foreign policy strategy.
On July 12, 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague, issued its “award” on the protest lodged by the Philippines four years earlier against China over their competing claims in the South China Sea.
With the backing of the United States, the decision to seek arbitration was made by the Aquino administration in 2012, after it blundered into losing control of Bajo de Masinloc (Huang Yan Dao) from China, which has not relinquished its possession since then.
China did not participate, placing into absurdity the PCA proceedings as ‘arbitration’ covers not one just one but two or more involved parties.
While the award, in essence, recognized the Philippines right to a 200 nautical miles exclusive economic zones (EEZ) and invalidated China’s ‘nine dash lines’ in the South China Sea, the tribunal also did not decide on the issue of territoriality, further adding that the award did not stop China from claiming sovereignty on areas it has disputes with other countries like the Philippines.
The PCA, which is an internationally established, non-government, arbitration body and not part of the United Nations, did not comment on the issue of territoriality because this is beyond its mandate under UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Laws of the Seas).
Aware of this, the Philippines also did not raise the question of who really “owns” the reefs and islands it is disputing with China.
After the Award was released, the Philippines instead focused its attention on the clauses that favors its narrative provided by the United States: the Award is a “victory” for Philippine sovereignty and the ‘rules-based international order,’ a favorite propaganda line of America.
Of late, the Philippines, in its effort to propagandize its questionable “victory,” has gone to the extent of claiming that the Award is now part of international law.
False narrative resulted to PH isolation
According to the open source, Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) Arbitration Support Tracker, 32 countries publicly supported and positively acknowledged the Award when it was announced on July 12, 2016, in favor of the Philippines and against China.
AMTI is a Western-funded institute known to promote US maritime positions and interests generally but objective in reporting the numbers of countries for or against the arbitration award.
They include the Pacific states of Australia, New Zealand, Philippines, United States, Japan and four ASEAN members: Indonesia, Vietnam. Singapore and Timor Leste.
Majority of the award’s supporters came from Europe who, significantly, are known lackeys of the United States except for Canada, which is a US neighbor North America.
They are: United Kingdom. Germany, France, Netherlands, Denmark, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, Czechia, Sweden, Finland, Ireland, Greece, Slovakia, Romania, Poland, Austria, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Slovenia.
On the other hand, only 7 countries sided with China: Russia, Sudan, Montenegro, Pakistan, Syria, Vanuatu (Taiwan is not include because it is a province of China).
AMTI also reported that by 2023, global support for the Philippine position even increased with the addition of countries like Malaysia, Myanmar in the ASEAN, India, and Norway, Malta, Luxembourg, Bosnia, Bulgaria and Croatia, among others, for a total of 47 countries during the period.
The increase reflects the ascendancy and effectiveness of the propaganda campaign waged by the United States and the Philippines to demonize China.
In January 2025, however, AMTI reported that support for the arbitration’s result has gone down to 27 countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czechia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway.
Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and the United States.
Significantly, the AMTI tracking no longer included one ASEAN member as supporting the Philippines.
In addition, Japan, another US dependent, is the only Asian country among the 12 signatories, to sign the joint statement for the occasion where they reaffirmed their “unwavering commitment to maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific that is peaceful, stable, and rules-based, anchored in international law.”
This year, on the 10th commemoration of the arbitration award, the Philippines’s isolation is glaringly open for everyone to see as the number of supporters had gone drastically to just 14 countries, according to AMTI, namely:
Australia, Canada, Estonia, Germany, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, New Zealand, Romania, Slovenia, United Kingdom, United States and the Philippines.
These dwindling number of countries—all of them commanded by the United States– also signed a joint declaration claiming the Award is “final, legally-binding and definitive” between the Philippines and China.
However, as the Philippines’ supplication to every US machination lowered its credibility as a truly sovereign nation while the passage of time enabled most countries to study the dispute more closely, resulting to declining support for the Award as countries started to see the geopolitics—and the dangers– behind the issue.
Ominously, the withdrawal of support of all ASEAN members in the award is also sending a clear message to Manila that its regional partners no longer share its confrontational approach in dealing with its disputes with China.