Duterte, Detention, & Elections: What happens if FPRRD wins?

OVER a month has passed since former President Rodrigo Roa Duterte (FPRRD) was arrested, detained, and transferred to the International Criminal Court (ICC) last March 11. Yet back home in Davao, his name still echoes, not for international proceedings, but for a more local concern: the 2025 mayoralty race.

Pitted against former Civil Service Commissioner and Cabinet Secretary Karlo Alexei Bendigo Nograles, FPRRD remains a formidable force in Davao politics. As election day nears, a question arises among Davaoeños: What happens if Duterte wins—but remains detained in The Hague?

Legally, three cumulative elements are required for a mayor-elect to fully assume office: (1) proclamation, (2) oath-taking, and (3) actual assumption of duties.

While concerns may be raised regarding FPRRD’s capacity to fulfill these requisites due to his detention, this piece considers a hypothetical scenario in which all three requirements are met—thereby making him the bona fide (real) Mayor of Davao City.

As provided for in the Local Government Code, in cases of permanent vacancy—death, resignation, removal, permanent incapacity, or disqualification—the Vice Mayor automatically steps in to serve the unexpired term.

But when the incapacity is temporary, say due to illness, travel, or even detention abroad, the Vice Mayor merely acts in a temporary capacity until the elected Mayor can resume duties. In this context, FPRRD’s potential term as mayor, while detained, may fall under temporary incapacity.

The Commission on Elections (COMELEC) has confirmed that he remains eligible, with no conviction carrying the accessory penalty of disqualification. And with the ICC’s pre-trial hearing scheduled for September 2025—months after both the May elections and the scheduled June assumption of office—disqualification prior to elections is doubtful.

Could the second placer slide into the mayoralty by default? That scenario is highly unlikely. In Domino v. COMELEC (G.R. No. 134015, 1999), the Supreme Court held that a second placer may only succeed when the leading candidate’s disqualification is final and known prior to the elections—thus rendering votes cast in their favor void. This is not the case here.

Davao’s governance may fall into the hands of the Vice Mayor, likely incumbent Mayor Baste Duterte, FPRRD’s son, who is currently leading in local polls.

This leads to the unspoken reality for many Davaoeños: the real choice may not be between FPRRD and Nograles, but between Nograles and Baste Duterte.

Voters supporting Duterte must reckon with this possibility—that a vote for FPRRD may, in effect, be a vote for Baste.

As for the ICC proceedings, if the pre-trial chamber rules against jurisdiction or finds insufficient basis to proceed, the case may be dismissed.

However, if it moves forward, precedent tells us that proceedings before the ICC are lengthy. The fastest completed full-blown trial, Prosecutor v. Bosco Ntaganda, took over two years to conclude.

In the end, while international developments cast a long shadow over the local race, Philippine law offers a clear framework for continuity in local governance.

Voters must weigh not only the candidates but also, the potential legal and practical implications that come with them.